Subscribers data for May'09 by TRAI

According to the press release by TRAI, the following are the updated figures (as of 19-June-2009) regarding the mobile subscribers:

• 11.44 million telephone connections (11.59 wireless subscribers less 0.15 wireline subscribers) added in May'09
• Teledensity reaches 38.88% mark
• Total number of telephone connections reaches 452.91 million (415.25 million wireless and 37.66 million wireline)
  
• The service provider-wise wireless subscriber details are as follows:
• Airtel: 99.5 million subscribers (increased by 2.8 million)
• Reliance: 77.2 million subscribers (increased by 2.4 million)
  
• Vodafone Essar: 74.1 million subscribers (increased by 2.6 million)
• BSNL: 53.6 million subscribers (increased by 0.4 million)
  
• Idea: 41.2 million subscribers (increased by 1.2 million)
• Tata Teleservices: 36.5 million subscribers (increased by 0.8 million)
• Aircel: 20.7 million subscribers (increased by 1.1 million)
  

Source: http://www.trai.gov.in

Subscribers data for April'09 by TRAI

According to the press release by TRAI, the following are the updated figures (as of 01-June-2009) regarding the mobile subscribers:

• 11.75 million telephone connections (11.90 wireless subscribers less 0.15 wireline subscribers) added in April'09
• Teledensity reaches 37.94% mark
• Total number of telephone connections reaches 441.47 million (403.66 million wireless and 37.81 million wireline)
  
• The service provider-wise wireless subscriber details are as follows:
• Airtel: 96.7 million subscribers (increased by 2.8 million)
• Reliance: 74.8 million subscribers (increased by 2.1 million)
  
• Vodafone Essar: 71.5 million subscribers (increased by 2.7 million)
• BSNL: 53.2 million subscribers (increased by 1.1 million)
  
• Idea: 40.0 million subscribers (increased by 1.1 million)
• Tata Teleservices: 35.7 million subscribers (increased by 0.6 million)

Source: http://www.trai.gov.in

Subscribers data for March'09 by TRAI

According to the press release by TRAI, the following are the updated figures (as of 21-Apr-2009) regarding the mobile subscribers:

• 15.87 million telephone connections (15.64 wireless subscribers and 0.23 wireline subscribers) added in March'09
• Teledensity reaches 36.98% mark
• Total number of telephone connections reaches 429.72 million (391.76 million wireless and 37.96 million wireline)
  
• The service provider-wise wireless subscriber details are as follows:
• Airtel: 93.9 million subscribers (increased by 2.8 million)
• Reliance: 72.7 million subscribers (increased by 3.1 million)
  
• Vodafone Essar: 68.8 million subscribers (increased by 2.9 million)
• BSNL: 52.1 million subscribers (increased by 2.9 million)
  
• Idea: 38.9 million subscribers (increased by 1.4 million)
• Tata Teleservices: 35.1 million subscribers (increased by 1.2 million)

Source: http://www.trai.gov.in

A few facts about India

Subscriber base: 376.12 million
Second highest in the world

Monthly subscribers addition: 10 million
One of the highest in the world

Wireless penetration: 35.65%
Lowest in the world

Prepaid base: 92%
One of the highest in the world

MoU: 449
One of the highest in the world

APRU: US$6.83
One of the lowest in the world

RPM: 1.4 cents
One of the lowest in the world

VAS: 9%
One of the lowest in the world

source:
[1] Anchor Report: Telecoms India: Nomura Singapore Ltd: 15 April 2009
[2] TRAI

Cost of tower

Finally I found out the cost of building a tower:

Ground-based tower: Rs. 27,50,000 (including Rs. 1,50,000 of annual opex)
Roof-top tower: Rs. 15,00,000 (including Rs. 1,50,000 of annual opex)

Sources
[1] UBS Investment Research, India Mobile Sector, dated 24th March'09, Global ER->India->Wireless Communications->Q-Series

3G subscribers estimates in Kolkata and Mumbai circle

Calcutta Telephones, the Kolkata Circle of BSNL launched 3G services on 21 March'09. Calcutta Telephones is looking at a 3G subscriber base of 75,000 by March'10. Interestingly, Calcutta Telephones currently has around 1.5 million subscribers. This means a conversion rate of 5% over 12 months.

MTNL plans to launch 3G services in Mumbai in May'09. MTNL is looking at a 3G subscriber base of 100,000 by Dec'09. Interestingly, MTNL currently has around 2.35 million subscribers. This means a conversion rate of around 4.25% over 7 months.

On a national average, out of 376.12 million wireless subscribers, 4-5% implies around 15.0 million to 18.8 million 3G subscribers in one year.

I, for one, find it extremely optimistic, given the fact that a typical mobile user in India is price-conscious, uses mobile phones primarily for voice communication, doesn't owns a 3G-enabled handset and would not be avail himself/herself of 3G facilities unless his/her partner also owns a 3G-enabled handset and has subscribed to 3G services.

Interestingly, according to a news article dated 16-Jul-2009, MTNL admitted that it had been able to attract only 1,000 3G subscribers in six months of operations.

Though, BSNL, according to a news article dated 20-Jul-2009, was doing better, at 13,000 subscribers since the launch of 3G services, though it was still much below its expectation of over 1,00,000 subscribers.
Source
[1] http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/News-By-Industry/Telecom/Calcutta-Telephones-hopes-to-cover-entire-city-in-four-months/articleshow/4297472.cms
[2] http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Cities/3G-telephony-launched-in-city/articleshow/4298285.cms
[3] http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/News-By-Industry/Telecom/MTNL-to-launch-3G-services-in-Mumbai-next-month/articleshow/4413540.cms
[4] http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/News-By-Industry/Telecom/MTNL-calls-global-telcos-for-3G-bids/articleshow/4782502.cms
[5] http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/News-By-Industry/Telecom/BSNL-launches-new-service-delivery-platform-for-3G-customers/articleshow/4799740.cms

Subscribers data for Feb'09 by TRAI

According to the press release by TRAI, the following are the updated figures (as of 19-Mar-2009) regarding the mobile subscribers:

• 13.80 million telephone connections (13.82 wireless subscribers less 0.02 wireline subscribers) added in Feb' 09
• Teledensity reaches 35.65% mark
• Total number of telephone connections reaches 413.85 million (376.12 million wireless and 37.73 million wireline)
  
• The service provider-wise wireless subscriber details are as follows:
• Airtel: 91.1 million subscribers (increased by 2.7 million)
• Reliance: 69.6 million subscribers (increased by 3.3 million)
  
• Vodafone Essar: 65.9 million subscribers (increased by 2.6 million)
• BSNL: 49.2 million subscribers (increased by 1.6 million)
  
• Idea: 37.5 million subscribers (increased by 1.4 million)
• Tata Teleservices: 33.9 million subscribers (increased by 1.1 million)

Source: http://www.trai.gov.in

Subscribers data for Jan'09 by TRAI

According to the press release by TRAI, the following are the updated figures (as of 20-Feb-2009) regarding the mobile subscribers:

• 15.26 million telephone connections (15.41 wireless subscribers less 0.15 wireline subscribers) added in Jan' 09
• Teledensity reaches 34.50% mark
• Total number of telephone connections reaches 400.05 million (362.30 million wireless and 37.75 million wireline)
  
• The service provider-wise wireless subscriber details are as follows:
• Airtel: 88.4 million subscribers (increased by 2.8 million)
• Reliance: 66.3 million subscribers (increased by 5 million)
  
• Vodafone Essar: 63.3 million subscribers (increased by 2.4 million)
• BSNL: 47.6 million subscribers (increased by 1.4 million)
  
• Idea: 36.1 million subscribers (increased by 1.9 million)
• Tata Teleservices: 32.8 million subscribers (increased by 1.0 million)

Source: http://www.trai.gov.in

Monthly new mobile subscriber additions

This is the graph showing the variation of net monthly new mobile subscriber additions.
Source: CRISIL

Q3 results

Following is the industry projection and the actual financials for the biggies of the telecom sector in India (all figures in Rs. million)

	REVENUE	EBITDA	PAT
Bharti
Consensus	96,596	38,962	21,325
Actual	96,334	39,450	21,593
RCom
Consensus	59,642	24,120	13,872
Actual	58,502	23,525	14,102
Idea
Consensus	25,863	6,930	1,998
Actual	26,209	6,805	2,562
MTNL
Consensus	12,499	2,646	854
Actual	12,362	1,874	918

Sources
India Telecoms 3Q Preview by Macquarie Research Equities dated 20th January 2009
Quarterly reports of individual companies

Regarding auction of CDMA-based 3G spectrum

In a recent move, DOT has decided that CDMA-based 3G spectrum would not be auctioned. Instead, it would be distributed only to Reliance Communications and Tata Teleservices (existing CDMA-license holders) at a fraction of the cost paid by GSM operators to obtain 3G, unless Shyam Sistema (the only other CDMA-license holder in the country), a newly-formed joint venture between Shyam Group and Russia's Sistema also expresses interest in possessing the 3G spectrum, in which case an appropriate auction would be held.

DoT claims that the number of CDMA-based 3G holders has been kept at two due to lack of spectrum at 800 MHz. Shyam Sistema has not yet given any indication of interest in obtaining CDMA-based 3G spectrum.

sources:
http://www.cn-c114.net/575/a374455.html
http://www.pluggd.in/indian-telecom-industry/3g-updates-dot-may-double-base-price-cdma-auction-limited-3471/
http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/holnus/006200901231933.htm

NOTE: As a result of our blog (or so I would like to believe), recently COAI, which is the GSM operators' body, wrote to DoT asking them to stop CDMA players from launching 3G CDMA before GSM CDMA auctions, otherwise it would give an unfair advantage to the CDMA players, [source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/News_By_Industry/Telecom/COAI_wants_govt_to_stop_CDMA_cos_move_to_give_3G_service_/articleshow /4083442.cms], and TRAI recently concluded that the 3G CDMA owners would have to match the highest 3G GSM bid (in a proportion of the alloted spectrum). Since 3G GSM owners get 5MHz in 2.1 GHz band and 3G CDMA owners get only 1.25 MHz in the 800 MHz band, the 3G CDMA owners would have to pay atleast 25% of the highest bid of 3G GSM [source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/News_By_Industry/Telecom/CDMA_cos_will_have_to_match_top_GSM_bids_in_3G_auction/articleshow/4102405.cms]

Subscribers data for Dec'08 by TRAI

According to the press release by TRAI, the following are the updated figures (as of 21-Jan-2009) regarding the mobile subscribers:

• 10.66 million telephone connections (10.81 wireless subscribers less 0.15 wireline subscribers) added in Dec' 08
• Teledensity reaches 33.23% mark
• Total number of telephone connections reaches 384.79 million (346.89 million wireless and 37.90 million wireline)
  
• The service provider-wise wireless subscriber details are as follows:
• Airtel: 85.6 million subscribers (increased by 2.6 million)
• Reliance: 61.3 million subscribers (increased by 1.7 million)
  
• Vodafone Essar: 60.9 million subscribers (increased by 2.1 million)
• BSNL: 46.2 million subscribers (increased by 0.9 million)
  
• Idea: 34.2 million subscribers (increased by 1.4 million)
• Tata Teleservices: 31.8 million subscribers (increased by 0.8 million)

Source: http://www.trai.gov.in

Subscribers data for Nov'08 by TRAI

According to the press release by TRAI, the following are the updated figures (as of 29-Dec-2008) regarding the mobile subscribers:

• 10.18 million telephone connections (10.35 wireless subscribers less 0.17 wireline subscribers) added in Nov' 08
• Teledensity reaches 32.34% mark
• Total number of telephone connections reaches 374.13 million (336.08 million wireless and 38.05 million wireline)
  
• The service provider-wise wireless subscriber details are as follows:
• Airtel: 82.9 million subscribers (increased by 2.7 million)
• Reliance: 59.6 million subscribers (increased by 1.8 million)
  
• Vodafone Essar: 58.8 million subscribers (increased by 2.1 million)
• BSNL: 45.3 million subscribers (increased by 0.7 million)
  
• Idea: 32.8 million subscribers (increased by 1.2 million)
• Tata Teleservices: 31.0 million subscribers (increased by 0.8 million)

source: http://www.trai.gov.in/presspre.asp?id=631