Calcutta Telephones, the Kolkata Circle of BSNL launched 3G services on 21 March'09. Calcutta Telephones is looking at a 3G subscriber base of 75,000 by March'10. Interestingly, Calcutta Telephones currently has around 1.5 million subscribers. This means a conversion rate of 5% over 12 months.
MTNL plans to launch 3G services in Mumbai in May'09. MTNL is looking at a 3G subscriber base of 100,000 by Dec'09. Interestingly, MTNL currently has around 2.35 million subscribers. This means a conversion rate of around 4.25% over 7 months.
On a national average, out of 376.12 million wireless subscribers, 4-5% implies around 15.0 million to 18.8 million 3G subscribers in one year.
I, for one, find it extremely optimistic, given the fact that a typical mobile user in India is price-conscious, uses mobile phones primarily for voice communication, doesn't owns a 3G-enabled handset and would not be avail himself/herself of 3G facilities unless his/her partner also owns a 3G-enabled handset and has subscribed to 3G services.
Interestingly, according to a news article dated 16-Jul-2009, MTNL admitted that it had been able to attract only 1,000 3G subscribers in six months of operations.
Though, BSNL, according to a news article dated 20-Jul-2009, was doing better, at 13,000 subscribers since the launch of 3G services, though it was still much below its expectation of over 1,00,000 subscribers.
Source
[1] http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/News-By-Industry/Telecom/Calcutta-Telephones-hopes-to-cover-entire-city-in-four-months/articleshow/4297472.cms
[2] http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Cities/3G-telephony-launched-in-city/articleshow/4298285.cms
[3] http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/News-By-Industry/Telecom/MTNL-to-launch-3G-services-in-Mumbai-next-month/articleshow/4413540.cms
[4] http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/News-By-Industry/Telecom/MTNL-calls-global-telcos-for-3G-bids/articleshow/4782502.cms
[5] http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/News-By-Industry/Telecom/BSNL-launches-new-service-delivery-platform-for-3G-customers/articleshow/4799740.cms
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